Ecology & Modeling2025

Appalachian Biodiversity Projections

Land-use and climate change projections for the Appalachian region to model biodiversity impacts.

Project Overview

Designed and built spatial land-use change projections for the Appalachians to model and quantify the relative impacts of climate change versus land-use changes on regional biodiversity. By predicting development expansion and habitat fragmentation, this project guides conservation priorities.

My Role

Graduate Student Researcher. Focused on spatial modeling, future land-use simulation, and corridor connectivity assessments.

Tools / Stack

PythonRDinamica EGOCircuitscapeArcGIS ProSpatial SimulationConnectivity Analysis

Project Details

InstitutionArmsworth Lab, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
Software / StackPython, R, ArcGIS Pro, Dinamica EGO, Circuitscape
TypeBiodiversity Forecasting
GoalPredict wildlife corridor fragmentation under future land development and warming scenarios.
ContextPh.D. project funded to identify climate-resilient corridors in the Appalachian mountains.

Implementation Roadmap

Development Process.

01

Retrieve historical land cover data and identify drivers of urban expansion.

02

Run spatial Markov chain models to simulate future development footprints.

03

Integrate climate projection data to model species range shifts.

04

Compute ecological connectivity using circuit theory to trace wildlife migration corridors.

05

Overlay projected corridors with current protected areas to identify conservation gaps.

Case Study Analysis

Challenges & Outcomes.

The Challenge

Integrating disparate spatial datasets representing different scales, coordinate systems, and resolutions.

The Solution

Developed custom preprocessing pipelines in Python to downscale and harmonize raster resolutions and reproject spatial coordinate systems.

The Outcome

Identified critical unprotected corridors in the Southern Appalachians that are vital for long-term species migrations under warming climates.